Rough hurricane season on the horizon

 

By Juan Alanis, Jr.

 

The month of May once again started on a cool note with highs a couple days only in the 70s. Things will be changing, however, as we head toward the end of May. Temperatures will rise into the upper 90s and begin hitting the 100s with more frequency. The arrival of the summer heat also means many will be making plans for weekends at the beach or vacations in the Carribean. Summer is also the beginning of hurricane season.

The North Atlantic Hurricane Season, including the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, officially begins June 1. Those making vacation plans for the Carribean, read closely. Tropical weather experts are predicting another very active year. Dr. William Gray, a tropical weather expert at Colorado State University in Fort Collins , is predicting a total of 13 names for storms, with seven becoming hurricanes. Gray is also predicting that three of the seven hurricanes become major hurricanes, those with winds in excess of 110 mph. He is basing his forecast on the continued warming of water temperatures in the Atlantic basin and the disappearance of the El Niño weather pattern.

Dr. José Rubiera, director of the National Forecast Center at Cuba 's Institute of Meteorology , is also predicting 13 named storms for this coming hurricane season. Of these 13, Rubiera believes two will develop in the Gulf of Mexico and two will develop in the Caribbean region. “There is a 70 percent probability of a storm developing, intensifying into a hurricane and affecting the region [ Cuba and the Carribean Sea ] this year,” Rubiera said. The longterm climatological average is a 40 percent chance. He said the predictions for an active year are based on the lack of an El Niño pattern and the recently observed warm waters in the tropical Atlantic and Carribean Sea.

Although some scientists and coastal residents like to point to global warming as a cause for the more active hurricane seasons, it is not the cause. Dr. Neil Frank, director of the National Hurricane Center from 1974 to 1987, now chief meteorologist at KHOU-TV in Houston , said the recent increase in number of hurricanes “has nothing to do with global warming.” He pointed out that throughout history, there has been a pattern of several decades with cooler water temperatures, resulting in few storms, while the next few decades will have more activity due to warmer water temperatures. “In the 30s, 40s, 50s, and 60s we had warm water temperatures, resulting in numerous hurricanes,”he said. Yet, from the mid-1960s to mid-1990s, there were many quiet hurricane seasons because of cooler waters. Since the mid-1990s, according to Frank, waters in the Atlantic have been warmer again, and as a result the number of storms has increased dramatically. Tropical weather records show there were a total of 91 named storms from the mid-1960s to the mid-1990s, a cooler water period. Since 1995, during which ocean waters have been warmer, there have been 137 named storms.

With the horror of Florida's four hurricanes last summer still fresh in the minds of many, the news of an active hurricane season will have many coastal residents on edge and nervous. Meanwhile, residents in communities inland from the coast, such as Laredo , San Antonio , and Monterrey , may not worry or care about such a forecast. However, forecasters still stress the need for everyone to be prepared for tropical season.

While a hurricane may have weakened considerably by the time it reaches Laredo , the threat is not over.

Richard Berler, chief meteorologist at KGNS-TV said, “The main interest would be flood-producing rains.” It is not uncommon for a weakening tropical system to dump five to 20 inches of rainfall. “In fact, despite the strong winds of a hurricane, floods are the main killer in hurricanes,” Berler said.

Jim Spencer, chief meteorologist at KXAN-TV in Austin , agreed. “Some of the worst flood events and most significant tornado outbreaks in South and Central Texas have occurred as a result of dying tropical systems,” he said.

Examples of tropical systems causing devastation away from the coast include the remnants of Tropical Storm Charley in 1998, which dumped 18 inches of rain in a 24 hour period on Del Rio, about 200 miles northwest of Laredo. The winds of Charley were not a problem, but the rains washed away blocks and blocks of homes and left 15 dead.

In 1988, floods caused by the remnants of Hurricane Gilbert killed hundreds in Monterrey , Mexico . In 1967, the remnants of Hurricane Beaulah dumped 25 inches of rain in Falfurrias. And in June of 1954, the remnants of Hurricane Alice dropped 35 inches of rain along the Río Grande near Del Rio , sending a wall of water down stream which washed away the international bridge here in the Gateway City , as well as devastated many businesses and homes along both sides of the Río Grande .

So while hurricanes may not directly impact Laredoans and inland residents as they do on the coastline, Berler says that Gray's forecast for an active hurricane season will “make people think about the dangers storms can pose.” Hurricanes and tropical storms may or may not be devastating at the coast depending on strength and velocity, yet inland even a weak tropical storm can be disastrous. “Amount of rain in a hurricane (and tropical storm) depends on how slow it moves, not strength,” Frank said. It is quite common for a tropical system to move inland and stop moving. In 2001, Tropical Storm Allison dumped 26 inches of rain on Houston in only eight hours, causing massive flooding throughout the Houston area.

With summer fast approaching in the next few weeks and many making plans for vacations, the key thing to remember is “always keep an eye out and be prepared,” Frank said. “We have been fortunate here in Texas that we have not had many storms, but based on climatology, we should expect to see an increase in storms.” Those planning vacations in the Carribean region may want to take their trip between now and July. Historically, the hurricane season's most active time is from August to mid-October.

The main point is, even though hurricanes may not strike Laredo directly, the remnants of a tropical system can, and therefore all residents should keep a lookout and be prepared.

The National Weather Service advises all residents to be aware if they live in a flood zone, check policies to see if your home and belongings are covered by wind or flood insurance, and have a disaster supply kit ready if a tropical system threatens. A kit should include a three-day supply of water for all persons in the household, food that does not spoil, a change of clothing, important medications, flashlights, and a battery-powered NOAA Weather Radio, among other things.

In many cases, people have lived in a coastal community their entire lifetime and never experienced a hurricane, yet you never know when suddenly your area may get four hurricanes in the same season, such as the case with Florida in 2004. Plus, hurricanes can change directions at the last minute, depending on atmospheric conditions, and as a result, communities have been ordered to evacuate due to a incoming hurricane, only to have a few rain showers result. Such was the case in 1999 when Hurricane Bret was taking aim on Corpus Christi, only to take a sudden turn west into the sparsely populated Baffin Bay/King Ranch area instead.

Frank, as well as many other forecasters, stress that whether you live on the coast or inland or are taking a trip to a coastal area, it is better to be prepared than not at all. For more information on hurricane safety and up to the minute storm information, visit the National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov, or you can also visit Dr. Neil Frank's Hurricane Site at www.khou.com.

 

(Juan Alanis, Jr., is an associate member of the American Meteorological Society and is currently employed as a teacher at Los Obispos Middle School.)