February untypically wet

By Juan Alanis

 

“Rain, rain, go away” is typical refrain to hear when we've all wearied of the wet weather. Last month, you might have added, “clouds, clouds, go away,” for in our city known for its sun and heat, February was anything but typical.

Although no exact figures were available from the National Weather Service (NWS) in Corpus Christi nor from Richard Berler, chief meteorologist at KGNS-TV, February 2005 did see more cloudy days than a normal February. “We definitely have had more than usual,” said Tim Tinsley, meteorologist with the NWS. As a result, temperatures reflected the additional clouds. Laredo's average high temperature last month was 68° F, the coolest average high since an average of 65° in 1985. On the flip side, with the additional cloud cover, nights were warmer. For only the third February in recorded weather history, the nighttime low failed to fall below the 40° mark.

A smaller temperature spread is common when there is a lot of cloud cover. In the daytime, the clouds block out the sun and help to lower the temperatures. Meanwhile, at night, the clouds serve as a blanket; they prevent the daytime heat from escaping back into space, keeping temperatures warmer. During the Laredo snowstorm of December 2004, it definitely was cold. However, if the clouds were not above us, we could have easily had a low near 20° instead of the upper 20s to near 30°.

Overall, with the cloud cover, Laredo was about two degrees cooler than a normal February, which is in line with what the NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in Maryland has said. The CPC had predicted a cooler, wetter March. So far, with 3.48 inches of rain through the fifth of March, the Gateway City is running above normal for rainfall. While many Laredoans have tired of the clouds, rain, and drizzle, I am pretty sure most would not mind a few extra clouds during the long, hot summer afternoons.

The cause of the current cloudy, wet pattern is suspected to be tied to a weak El Niño. “It may have something to do with it,” Tinsley said. El Niño is a warming of the Pacific Ocean waters in the tropical latitudes. Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific have been running a couple degrees above normal this winter. This warmer water is the cause of increased moisture levels in the atmosphere, and when combined with a more active jet stream that is farther south than usual, increased rain throughout the southwestern United States is the result. “Anytime we get an active pattern out of Baja California and the Pacific, we get more moisture in all levels of the atmosphere,” Tinsley said, adding that the El Niño weather pattern occurs roughly every three to four years.

Exactly how much impact this weak El Niño actually has on the the weather is debated among many meteorologists. “Normally this [wet and cool weather] would be an El Niño pattern, but I see no signs of it,” Berler said, noting that despite a strong El Niño in 1997, Laredo was hot and dry.

In any case, our luck may be running out when it comes to this cool, wet pattern. This suspected El Niño is weak and appears to be subsiding. Based on forecast models and discussions from the Climate Prediction Center , sea surface temperatures in the Pacific are returning to normal levels. As result, the amount of moisture in the atmosphere may begin to drop off, meaning less rain and more sun. “Current patterns of cloudy and rainy weather may continue for another week or two, then it will level off,” Tinsley said.

The official outlook from the CPC for the southern Texas region is calling for continued cooler than normal temperatures for the period of March-April-May, then shifting to above normal temperatures for the period of May-June-July. Outlooks call for rainfall to be at normal levels. Although the CPC outlook for January and February appeared to be correct, many forecasters still will agree that forecasts beyond 14 days are simply just guesses based on long-term trends. “I usually do not even look at them,” Berler said.

We can only hope that the outlook for a warmer summer is wrong and that instead the clouds and rain stay around like they did last summer.

 

(Juan Alanis, Jr., is an associate member of the American Meteorological Society and is currently employed as a teacher at Los Obispos Middle School.)